What you are talking about is the gambler’s fallacy. What I’M talking about, is not. It is more similar to the Law of Large Numbers Law of large numbers - Wikipedia
I’m not talking about the odds of getting a chest on your first, 10th, 100th or 1000th kill. I’m talking about the odds of getting a chest somewhere in kills 1-1000, if you are doing 1000 kills. Now, if you’ve gone 1000 kills, then those kills no longer matter, and if you do 1000 more kills, your odds don’t improve compared to the first 1000 kills. Your results might improve, but not your odds.
So if I said, I’m going to kill 3000 rabbits by the time this event is over, I would have a 95.0% expectation that one of those kills would give me a chest. If I had already killed 1000, and I still intend to stop at 3000 total, then my odds of getting the chest would go down to 86.5%, because I would only have 2000 kills left, and the odds of getting 1 in 2000 kills is 86.5%.
So I’m not saying the odds improve as you do kill more- every failure to get the chest keeps the odds of getting it the same. I’m saying, if you choose to kill 500 rabbits, and I choose to kill 5000, then your odds of overall success (ie, actually getting the chest) are lower than mine, but neither is guaranteed. You might get yours in your 500 kills, and I might go my full 5000 without getting it. But by choosing to do more than you in the beginning, I have better odds of success than you do, until we actually start doing it.
You misunderstand the gambler’s fallacy (or let’s say that you should read about it in its entirety). The fact that each event is independent only means that for your 2000th rabbit kill, the chance for you to get the chest on that particular kill is stii only 0.1% without luck, or 6.267875% with full luck.
That doesn’t change the fact that not getting the chest after 2000 kills is an incredibly rare event in itself (it is an event that has 5.98e-57 chance of happening if wearing full luck).
This is actually explained (kindly) in the wikipedia article you linked, but you may want to research more about it (gambler’s fallacy + bias):
“In most illustrations of the gambler’s fallacy and the reverse gambler’s fallacy, the trial (e.g. flipping a coin) is assumed to be fair. In practice, this assumption may not hold. For example, if a coin is flipped 21 times, the probability of 21 heads with a fair coin is 1 in 2,097,152. Since this probability is so small, if it happens, it may well be that the coin is somehow biased towards landing on heads, or that it is being controlled by hidden magnets, or similar”
Remark; if luck is not applied to the rabbit chest drop, then the chance of not getting the chest after 2000 kills is actually 13%. Which seem much more likely. Hence why I think luck is just not applied, unlike what they lead us to believe.
IDK WHATS WORDE farming rabbits a full day or Fisching archivement
I think rabbits since you dont see a number going up and its just 1 chest you dont make profit … so stupid this event
1000+ kill no chest
The problem here is that we’re not flipping a coin. A computer is generating a random number.
Expecting a computer to behave the same as a physical object (a coin) is not going to happen. Computers are very good at generating the same set of “random” numbers (aka pseudo-random). So the computer is not playing fair and has its own bias built in based on hardware and RNG algorithm used. A particular system setup may be biased toward only generating “no chest” rolls.
Since we don’t know the RNG algorithm being used nor the effect of the multitude of hardware and driver combinations being used, expecting a chest after 2000 rabbit kills may still be the gambler’s fallacy because of the computer bias to a particular set of random numbers.
Lots of things may be incredibly rare and the numbers indicate it may never happen, but that doesnt exclude it from happening.
I agree more with @desubot that its probably a game client/server side/coding issue than a “luck not working” issue since I had a purple bag spawn “underground” but I was still able to loot it.
Really lame event if your forced to kill 1k plus rabbits for a chest drop, at least add some craft mods to the drop or something fun. Just sad to have so much luck on you and still have a huge RNG slap in the face.
Yes, and if you apply the math as explained in their blog article, and using datatables from the game files, then you will realize something is wrong. Wrong as in if someone tells you that you have 50% chance to land a head when flipping a coin, and after 100 tosses, you only get tails. Your choice is to believe this is just odd luck. Mine is to question if the coin is rigged, and ask to examine it.
Just try it yourself, I’m done explaining that. I already gave you the numbers.
@Aenwyn plz, could you report this possibility to dev ?
you’re telling me. Never gotten a single sap from Baines.
Never gotten a single Ancient trophy material from Surgeon.
Never gotten a single trophy material from Deahi.
Never gotten a single Stacked Dice.
Never gotten a single Precision Armoring Tools.
Never gotten the legendary engineering tools.
Went from playing 14 hours a day in Sept/Oct to playing 1 hour a day tops at present.
Nothing on here is worth it if not getting a single drop at all. Meanwhile economy inflates more and more so can’t even purchase any of these items either. Its no wonder the player base still continues to decline.
It isn’t a bug like the influence pushing speed for smaller companies wasn’t a bug right? … Until it was.
I refuse to accept that killing 4026 bunnies like I have and not getting the chest is right.
I agree, no luck. What a crap idea for an event on a failing game. In events in LOTRO you do such and such and get a good chance of getting something good. The same in ESO. I know these dudes want to be different, so they make it really difficult to be enthusiastic about events lol
I agree, I rarely play this game, there’s does not seem much chance of getting anything decent. This is another waste of time event. Way to go lol
It is hard to believe it isn’t a bug, because I am over 3000 kills. Hear me out, what if the bug is like the topaz 9/10 bug, where the game said you got it but you never received it? Please have the devs look into it!
I have some questions related to the RNG system in the games.
Does RNG generate evenly distributed number for specific user and loot table or globally distributed? Meaning does number generate between 0 and 100 is evenly distributed for a user.
If this is not then it is not in-game luck system , it is real life luck system.
For sure, Dev team has to review RNG algorithm.
You’re welcome. I realized there is no point explaining probabilities to someone who doesn’t have basic knowledge of how maths works.
Yes. That’s how random number generators work, they guarantee that the distribution will be uniform. For all intent and purposes, what is usially called “pseudo random number generator” is random to us.
Dont believe the nonsense about random number generators sprouted by pentafold. He watched too many movies. You dont need true randomness based on athmospheric noise to simulate a coin toss…
There is a bug with Rabbit drops, managed to drop a bag early in the morning gave me a diamond Gyp instead of the chest total of 4 for that day. Yes 3 dropped for me after the reset.
Suppose I wont be getting the chance to even drop the chest then. LOL.
This game is one big greedy mistake, probably the servers will be shut down in six months.
This game is definitely not made by players.
Amazon should refund everyone the money spent in the game and for the game itself, apologize and remove itself with its greed.
I also had the 4 diamond bug on the first day, still got the chest, it’s an unrelated bug if that can help.
I think it is because the timer for diamond is set at 18 hours, so if you get your 3 diamonds just after the reset time, you will be able to get a 4th one 18 hours later before the next reset.