[Bug] Major luck trophy

I don’t have one, as I said before I think they’re a scam. The price is too high for the additional 50 per trophy over basic.

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Yes, I understand that you have access to data. What I also understand is that unless you somehow have access to the full source, you have zero visibility of the implementation of that data.

The data can say anything it likes, however if there’s an error somewhere in the algorithms that implement that data then it’s irrelevant, and you simply cannot say that there is no error without full access to source.

But what I’ve said already several times is that at this point, whether or not the systems are working as intended doesn’t matter. There has to be confidence within the community that it’s working correctly, and the literally hundreds of posts about loot luck show clearly there is not. THAT is what needs to be addressed.

That’s patently false. We have access to the loot tables, and everything that it implies, and we have direct access to the implementation of that information, in the form of the live game where we can verify and validate our assumptions. Our assumptions have proven to be not only true, but exact.

Do you want to catch Oysters? Your absolute best chance is 22500 luck points worth of gear. If you use too much fishing luck, you will not get oysters, instead you will get treasure chests. In fact, we know that the odds with that amount of luck, at a 3 star fishing spot, will be 64.4% Rare Blue fish, 32.4% Treasure Chests, and 3.2% legendary fish. Go hit however many hotspots you feel like hitting with that much luck on (2 major trophies and an ironwood pole with no luck perks), and watch as you magically converge on the numbers we already know.

Now, guess what happens when you put on all the luck thats available in game for fishing?
You will 100% eliminate blue rare fish from your catch. You will get 59% treasure chests, and 41% legendaries. So what does this have to do with Pit Lord? The fishing loot tables are structured exactly the same way as the standard loot tables. Occams Razor says they are probably implemented in the exact same way, theres no good reason to think that two completely different systems share the exact same data structures and yet, have differnent implementations.

When they launched to rabbit chest event, their marketing material said that the lucky rabbits feet consumables would help to acquire the chest.

Now, knowing what we know about luck, that should have meant that people, wearing their luck gear, should have had a better shot at getting a chest. Turns out that wasnt true. Turns out that, statistically, many folks wearing luck gear were still getting upwards of 3000 rabbit kills to get their chest. If their luck gear was helping them the amount that it was supposed to, then multitudes of people were hitting trillion to one impossiblities.

We brought that same thing up with the devs, and they ‘fixed’ their marketing material so that it no longer said that luck will help get the chest.

Now, I agree with the sentiment of this in theory, but the community is feeble and poor at being able to tell the difference between situations where luck is obviously broken (like the rabbit chest, or the fishing trophies) and situations where they are just having a string of bad luck. This thread is potently illustrative of that fact.


So after telling everyone that their interpretations based on their own in-game experiences are invalid because of insufficient data points, or something, you’re now telling me you’re basing your own monumentally arrogant viewpoint all comes down to some extracted data and your own in game experiences?

I have to say this made me laugh out loud.

The only conclusion I can draw is that you’re either the most unjustifiably arrogant person I’ve come across in a long time, or you’re a dev lurking in disguise.

Assuming that’s not the case, I’ll say it all again for you. Unless you have access to actual code, then the conclusions you’ve drawn from your extracted data and in game experiences are no more or less valid than anyone else’s.

When did you do all this in game testing? What types/sources of loot? What areas? How do you know the loot you collected in the areas you collected them is working in the same way as that in other areas from other sources? How do you know things haven’t changed?

Here’s a small example of how things can break. I’m sure you’ll dismiss it, but here it is anyway.

I just did the same run mentioned several times above. Same amount of luck. I killed the same boss 12 times, as well as multiple other mods in the area. Maybe 30 kills in total. Usually, I’ll get bags from 70% to 80% of those kills. I did not receive a single bag. Not once.

This happens sometimes, not often, but occasionally. It happens to everyone else I know sometimes. I have to log out, and back in again, then suddenly the loot drops will return. Dying and respawning also works.

Circumstantial, yes. Worthy of dismissal? Definitely not.

Have you considered that their data was larger and much better than yours?

Also, stop acting like this involves some complex algorithm. Let me guess, you want them to print out the code so you can analyze it?

Have you never taken a statistics course? Do you not know why sample size matters?

At this point, I’m going to dismiss everything you say unless you recorded a video of it.

Yes, because they’re gathering data blindly, with no idea how anything works, grasping at straws because they’ve got nothing to base their assumptions on. Just like the hokey nonsense you’ve put up here as evidence.

See, this is impossible to have a discussion with someone who is unaware of their own ignorance, and sees any effort to educate them as arrogance. If you want me to point you to the exact spot in the Dev FAQ, or the exact timestamp of where the dev’s clearly, and unequivocally state that “bag drops are not affected by luck”, I can do that.

But nonwithstanding that fact that you didnt mention how many other people were in the POI even if they werent farming Daehi. Thats important, and it affects your bag drop chances. That formula isnt one we know, as its not in the datamine at all, but we do know that if 20 people all do 5% damage to a boss, not everybody gets a drop on a boss with a guaranteed drop. So, there are group size factors at play. But bag drops arent affected by luck.

Now, we can go back to the beginning here and point out that you could not have possibly picked a worse test subject to try and experiment with. Pit Lord is unique in all of aeturnum. There is no other mob in the entire game that has the trifecta of all three mob tags. - Common, Named, Elite. What that means in practice is he’s rolling all three loot trees. So when you get multiple infused health potions, or multiple craft mods, it’s because he essentially drops triple loot.

So, we’ve validated and verified that everything we know to be true is actually true, got exact numbers as a result, and our theory and reality match perfectly, because it aligns with what the data files in the game tell us too, and yet, somebody elses ignorant, ill informed hunches based off of literally guesses, have an equal chance of being right. Okay. Sure.

I’ve done everything I can to try and inform and educate you and give you access to all the same information we use. Apparently that’s beyond your capabilities to ingest and I can only assume that understanding json is beyond your skillset, so at this point theres really no purpose in trying to convince you further.


Wow, it must be really tough for you being the only smart person around when everyone else is so stupid.

I never said they were, at any point. I was using that as an example that things don’t always work like they are supposed to. A fact which you continually and willfully ignored.

Zero. Only myself.

What you’ve done yet again is ignored every point I’ve tried to make to you, further displayed your breathtaking arrogance and rudeness, and generally made an ass of yourself. Much appreciated, thank you.

I have thought about this many times when i see ppl buying trophys before good luck gear, i guess they unfortunatly dont know how bad designed this is…

i have another bug like: with full gears(armors, bags, weapons) + pearl + 3 major luck + no pvp => have better loots than with the same gears + food luck only drop potions.

Way 2much replies to go through them all, but I’ll state my experience!
I was running full luck set, and I can say I was getting pretty good drops.
For example an expedition run was dropping me at least 1-2 legendary drops if not more per run.

Then a week ago I got all 3 trophies + luck food and kept running with luck set, since then I noticed my drops are total garbage, I get surprised when I get purple drop :joy: Don’t remember last time I saw legendary if we exclude void essence :sweat_smile:
So yeah I’ll give it a try for few more days, if it continue to drop all blue and green, I’m throwing out trophies out of my houses. Something is very off with luck in this game :smiley:

Let us know when you’re done being ignorant and want to know how luck works. Other than that there’s nothing else that needs to be said.

Cya :hugs:

You’re attacking the guy that actually spent a reasonable amount of time gathering tangible data (flawed or not), presenting it and asking questions about it. Where is the evidence you spent time gathering?

Last week I found 30+ scarabs and 15-20 mid-high trophy mats, incl 2 loaded dice and 3 Precision Armoring Tools.
Then this weekend something happened and since friday I have found 3 scarabs and only a few low tier trophy mats.
Running with the same luck gear (50%+) as always.

For me I usually see these spikes when gathering, dont know why.

Also during this time I saw a streamer pulling 2 loaded dice back to back one day and 9 scarabs on another with no luck at all on anything.

Just seams fishy sometimes.
I would hope they just remove luck in the game. Its just confusing.

It’s not luck that is confusing you, it’s statistics. Maybe you should take a course.

@Ryanaslett Explains it here:

So statistics and everything else aside, can anyone say in their specific experience what they feel is the right amount of luck where they get the best drops? Is it between 30-34%? Is it over 50% just give us something to work with here.

Depends, what drops are you looking for? Trophy materials from chests - As much luck as you can get.

The problem here isnt that he spent time gathering data. It’s that the data doesnt show anything at all, because he doesnt understand what data to collect to demonstrate his case. He highlighted a bunch of colors and claimed that it showed some sort of effect.

If somebody came in here and said that they put up all three major luck trophies and they didnt do any more damage, and gave us a spreadsheet of all the damage they had done to the last 200 mobs they had killed, we would tell them, politely at first, that luck trophies do not increase damage. If they continue to insist that their guess is just as good as ours, and that we don’t know what we’re talking about, and that we’re arrogant, then yeah, we’re gonna attack, because bad ideas are viral. There are still people who think amulets were broken. There are still people who think New world is going to fry their graphics card, there are still people who think that luck plays a role in what color their loot is.

Anyhow since folks still seem unclear, here’s what AGS devs have said about loot color (Rarity):

First, here in this post.

Luck doesn’t increase your chance to get higher gear score rolls or roll more perks, but it does increase your chances of seeing item drops that have higher chances of rolling bonuses.

Remember, “roll more perks” is what determines Legendary vs Epic Vs Rare Vs Uncommon. Perk count is the sole determining factor.

Right here in the february dev update: New World: Dev Update - February 2022 - YouTube Phil says:

Luck doesnt increase the chance of rarity either, so once you trigger that roll, it doesnt provide you a chance to get an uncommon or an epic, it just increases the chances to get a very rare named item"

Finally, in the Luck FAQ they clarified again:

Our item attributes (STR, CON, INT etc.) and perks (e.g. Keen, Refreshing Ward, Skinning Luck etc.) roll separately from the general chance to drop loot, and therefore, luck is not a factor in determining rarity of a non-named item. Players with high luck stats have a much better chance of earning exclusive rare drops, like Named Weapons and Trophy components.

So, theres no other way to clarify beyond just beating a dead horse again and again:

That would be like throwing out your luck trophies because you dont get higher yield when gathering. i.e. luck trophies, and luck in general, does not affect whether or not you get blue, green or orange drops.

The one mechanic in the game that we know for 100% certainty, does affect the loot color, is the level of the Mutation you are running. You will get many, many, many more legendaries in an M10, than you will in a regular dungon.

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Thank you both for these excellent responses. I don’t claim to know anything about how it works and this helps a lot and has started me on a journey to better understand it so I can play the game accordingly with good knowledge.

I can see clearly that OP’s experiment was relatively pointless in the grand scheme of things. Still, not sure it’s worth attacking him out of frustration. You’ve said your piece, it’s up to him to listen, or not.

Either way thanks for helping me out.

I’m sorry, please show me where I claimed anything of the sort? Where have I ever mentioned “colors” at all??? Or claimed quality has any role in anything I’m saying?

You’re so busy being the rudest, most arrogant person on earth, and telling everyone how stupid and inferior they are to you that you haven’t even bothered to read anyone else’s points.