Great post, and thank you for doing this. I’ve made similar posts on Reddit under the old system, so I’m glad someone else took the time to do it here for the new changes. A couple of small points:
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When you lock Shirking Fortification, the bucket consists of 8 total items, not 7. Pretty sure you missed Beast Ward. Actual value of the full bucket is 14.49%, not 14.26%
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They changed the way that perks roll now. So they roll label first, then there is a second roll once you get into the label bucket. Resilient is the “CritDef” bucket. Shirking Fortification is part of the DmgAbsord bucket. Freedom is in the DebuffDur bucket. Each bucket has a total weight value that is a combination of the total combined weights of the perks/labels in that bucket. Your chest piece for example has the following weights:
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Total Weight: 690
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Crift Def: 100
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CDR: 100
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Proc: 100
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Skill: 100
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DmgAbsorb: 100
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DebuffDur: 100
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Durability: 30
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Luck: 25
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Afflicted: 20
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Gathering: 1
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Weapon: 1 for each, or 14 points total.
So by locking Shirking Fort, you have reduced total weight for Labels to 590. Now your odds of hitting CritDef is 100/590. After you hit that, then you have brought down the odds of hitting DebuffDur to 100/490. Once you hit DebuffDur, you have total weight of 300, and Freedom is weighted 100, so odds are 100/300, or 1/3.
Since we don’t know the order that the perks will roll, the easiest way is to say we start with 200/590 (since we can hit CritDef or DebuffDur), then 100/490 for hitting the 3rd perk, then 1/3 for hitting Freedom in the DebuffDur bucket. Mutliplying them all together gives us 2.0306% odds of hitting those 3 specific perks. But since we have to get legendary for that to happen, we need to reduce those numbers by 1/6 (for Timeless Shards) or 1/3 (Runestone Stopwatch).
So final percentages are 0.3843% for Timeless and 0.7687% for Stopwatch.
The odds can also change based on other factors. Boots don’t have a “Proc” option, so the total weight is 590 instead of 690. Heavy Pants are also 590, since they can’t roll Sturdy Energy, which is the pants “Proc”. So better odds to hit BiS on those 2 items than others.
The Summer Event patterns also give you better odds, because they don’t have Resilient, Luck, Afflicted or Durability. So they should all have total label weights of 515 instead of 590 and 415 for Heavy Pants and all boots. Obviously, if you want PvP gear you’ll have to lock Resilient yourself, so the odds don’t go down after the first perk, but if you’re looking to make Ward gear, this is a MUCH better option. And even locking Resilient, it’s a lot cheaper than locking Shirking Fort, even if the total estimated cost will go up, since not being able to lock Shirking Fort reduces your odds significantly. These patterns appear to be how the devs are accommodating the fact that they kinda gutted PvE crafting with the new perk balance, and screwing over replica crafting.
Realistically, the changes were good. Especially for jewelry (although it brought prices down significantly, so lucky crafters make less gold). There’s a route to getting what you want, whatever that is. Runestone Stopwatches are great. Biggest problem I’ve run into now is the streakiness of things. I’ve gone 30 crafts in a row locking something other than Resilient (since that is what the numbers say to do) and not hit Resilient. Which basically makes most of those crafts garbage. Then Resilient will hit 3 out of 4 times when I craft something else, usually with a cheaper craft mod. Crafting Gravity Well Heavy Chest pieces?- no resilient for you. Crafting Maelstrom medium gloves- have as much Resilient as you want. But that’s just my brain trying to find patterns in randomness.
I love playing pve and it would be Sooo good if I had more control over my pve gear crafts 
imagine how fast we could clear mutations, or how many mobs we could agro in myrkguard. Optimising pve builds are a valid persuit and deserve the devs attention:
It’s just as exciting to see you here on the forums as it is to see you in the arena 
or at the reek water ori cliff