Crafter Math for Developers on Weapons [Mathematical explanation of why Crafting needs help.]

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All in all if 1/16 is accurate to craft a legendary, that means it would take 1/3200 crafts to be the perfect BiS. With trenchant and Thwarting being added it turned 1/120 chance into 1/200. Which means it went from 1/1920 to 1/3200 chance. No doubt they will add more perks, which they should.

That’s why everyone uses dungeon weapons. Don’t even get me started on armor.

#CraftersNeedHelp

(600-600 crafting or force two perks? Please?)

Math Below

Based on the perk bucket list, if you force a Proc Perk, you cancel out 25 other perks from being applied.

BiS is usually Keen perk, Damage Con, then a Proc Perk. If you force a Proc Perk the other pools are Bane, useless on kill perks, Weapon Perks, Threat Perks then Crit perk in its own pool.

That’s 1/5 for your second perk to be crit then 1/4 to be damage con on second roll.

That’s 1/20 LEGENDARIES to be somewhat BiS. In order for damage con to be rolled after crit is rolled and be keenly empowered it’s a 1/10 chance which ups it to 1/200 legendaries Keen, Vicious, Keenly empowered.

It goes for all perks in the Proc category.

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So a 1/200 chance on legendary for a general BiS weapon. Crafting a 600 GS item is different for everyone due to RNG, but I’d say it’s more like 1/16 rather than 1/6. I think if it rolls 600 but technically fails to get a third perk it defaults to 599, which is a very common thing.

Addition

15 asmo ($5250), 5 Runic Leather($750), 3 Glittering Ebony ($100), 10x Battle medal ($1500), Shard($500), craft mod ($2500) per craft btw.

10.6k per craft. Craft 3200 of them and its 33,920,000 gold. 200 of them would still be 2,120,000 if we were gauranteed 600 GS on Craft.

If we forced a second perk, it would turn odds to 1/40 on average with 1/16 being legendary, that means even with a forced second perk it is 1/640 BiS. Which costs 6,784,000 gold.

If you could do both it would be 424,000 per hand selected BiS weapon. That’s STILL almost gold cap. Let alone how much the mats would fly off the charts if the change was introduced.

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Credits to

Perks and Perk Buckets

@TheBDLG

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They need to at least guarantee a legendary or two perks. This nonsense needs to stop. We’re spending a ridiculous amount per roll for trash tier perks like beast bane.

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It’s a meme on my server to sell BiS and post Beast Bane crafts.

Beast in Slot baby!

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Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems you are implying in your math that it selects the bucket then selects a perk from the bucket. Do we know for sure that is how it works?

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I dont think allowing 2 perks, OR guaranteed Legendary is the best apporach.

I detailed out how a system could be implemented that would help address this. [SUGGESTION] The "Re-Forging" System - How New World can tie its End Game systems together

I think something LIKE this would be more ideal, than allowing players to to guarantee 2 perks, or guarantee Legendary.

The TLDR: is we basically need a way to start targeting “re-rolling” perks on weapons. So if you have a Base Legendary, and maybe it has 2 perks but a Beast Bane or something you want removed, you can re-roll JUST that “Beast Bane” park on that item, until it lands on something you do want.

So I dont think the solution is to alter crafting. I think we just need some sort of “Re-Forge” System that allows you to start progressing more towards your desired perks.

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The fact that you can’t roll the same perk category twice is the reason why I put it that way. I’m going off the RNG that chests use and has been explained. If it excludes rolled perks and goes off the total the math gets much much worse, trust me. There’s 52 total perks.

It would make the first perk 1/52 and the second perk 1/??? Depending on perk pool. Let’s stick to keen, vicious, keenly empowered. If crit is rolled then it’s 1/51. Let’s say 1/50 for first perk and you rolled Damage Con Perk, vicious, then it’s 1/40 for the next perk due to Damage Con perk having 10 perks.

That turns into 1/2000 legendaries to get the desired BiS item or $21,200,000 if you always roll 600 GS items.

Based on 1/16 being legendary, if they roll perks at complete random THEN exclude rolled perk table for the next roll rather than roll the perk table then perk in said table, which is how loot boxes roll items, then it becomes $330,290,000 in order to craft your hand picked BiS weapon based on $10,600 per craft.

I highly doubt they RNG totalized perks rather than groupings.

The 80 perks probability is excluding the proc category that has 25 perks in it due to 4 being uncraftable and one being forced on your weapon. (30 total)

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This is why decry AGS’s terrible RNG system. It’s shit. The more random perks they add to the pool, the greater (and I mean by multitudes greater) the chances of finding, dropping, or crafting trash.

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Agreed. I want that as well. I just made the math on even IF they added something like an extra +1 on crafting gear for another +5 AND allowed you to force two perks it would still be almost gold cap to craft a completely specific weapon you wanted to craft.

More of a reference to the ridiculousness of crafting rather than a, “GIVE ME PERFECT CRAFTING,” post.

Something. Give us SOMETHING

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I know that you can’t get two perks from the same bucket, but I don’t know if it has ever been shown, or can be shown, that it first rolls to select a bucket then rolls for perk in the bucket. I think its just as likely to roll against the list of all possible perks with the ones from used buckets removed. I think the fact that some perks have multiple buckets (e.g. Vicious, Vorpal, the chain perks, the attunement perks) makes it less likely that it rolls to select a bucket first.

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Yeah, there is no definitive explanation, agreed.

I just know how loot tables work in chests due to data miners, so I based the post that they were consistent in their choice of RNG with the entirety of the rest of the game.

Very true, but it’s not that difficult. Let’s just say you roll flame attunement, you already rolled a Proc Perk so you can no longer roll the Chain of fire perk associated anyway.

Vorpal and vicious? If they rolled the accuracy bucket, then rolled into vorpal, they can still roll into damage con but vicious is removed. If we REALLY wanted to, we could craft multiple items with flat out no forced perk and have it RNG 2 perks on each weapon , record and figure probability.

Each perk group should be around the same number of perk groups.

If it’s the latter then each perk pool should have around the equivalent proportion to total perks rather than perk groups.

And I just realized that the earlier math in my initial reply included all Skill Perks. I need to fix it.

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Fixed.

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Fair point. And a perk like Keen with its own bucket makes this actually easier to check than I thought. On weapons you’ve rolled without selecting Keen, do you see a proportional number roll Keen? I somewhat recently did a batch of 22 muskets selecting for Fire Attunement (was trying for a BiS Genesis musket), and rolled two of them Keen, which is about in line with both interpretations (either 1/25 or 1/8) so more data would be needed. From a coding perspective, especially considering that the bucket rolling approach would need to reroll empty buckets, it feels easier to roll against all the perks and remove ineligible ones between rolls, but that’s hardly conclusive.

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I have been looking for a complete list of perks like the one posted for a week or so now and haven’t had the pleasure of recording crafts yet.

I’m going to be rolling plagued crit weapons soon so I’ll let you know what I come up with. Just can’t decide if I want something like Keen, Vicious Plagued strikes on Hatchet, Spear or BB.

Weaponsmithing is my only non 595-600 craft so I won’t be rolling GA’s… :disappointed_relieved:

To make it cheap, I may just take a gang of low material items and full azoth craft 100 low level items and base it off that.

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Are you familiar with nwdb.info? They have the weapon perks and their buckets listed with the weapons that can roll them, its very convenient imo. That perks and buckets page you linked feels like a bit of the mess, with them all in one list together like that. For example, Orichalcum Musket - Item - New World Database

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Yeah but it takes too long to scroll through that list. I just screeshotted each cat and I can scroll through the categories. Also… Starmetal is the Lowest tier to craft for perks. Lol. Fuck that.

Crafted 4 hatchets just now.

Perk groups were: 2 hated, 2 on kill, 1 skill. Rest Damage Con plagued crits. With only a 1.89% chance for each perk I find it hard to believe 2 were hated and 2 were mortal refreshment if it was totalized, but that’s just me. With 10 DmgCon’s, 2 threat perks and 6 on kill perks, if it was totalized I shouldnt have had the same perk twice.

I’ll keep tracking and update when I have a bigger scale.

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This might be something better tested with the next PTR, where mats are free but incomplete.

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TO HAVE FUN!

Gathering is one of the best parts of this game, being out in the world, cutting down trees, finding wild motes, ores etc but its not complimented at all by the crafting system. This game in its core is fun but the crafting needs to be fun as well.

No one wants to go out and gather a billion resources if they know the end result is just going to be a gamble. That is why a lot of people have quit this game. If you make the game fun and make the crafting worth it people will come back and go out adventuring to find the materials required (higher level resources need to be dynamically spawned so no one can sit on them all day).

The lack of endgame crafting options is lackluster and the timeless shards just made everyone choose iron guardsmans which just made every other mod pretty much useless. Why cant we use our other mods in timeless shards like strength/con intell/dex etc?

Give the level 200 armorer/jewler/weaponsmith/arcanist etc options, they spent so much time, money and effort to get there, there should be a benefit and a goal.

To gamble at level 200 is just a slap in the face

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Hellooo IDarkStar!!

Amazing work youve done here with the math and such, I am sure the Dev team will like to see this post so I will get it sent up to them. Take care!

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i-love-you-love

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