Detailing why we can't, and most likely will never be able to, draw conclusions about loot luck

I’m just going to post a link to my reddit post. The original post is long and there’s supplemental information in the comments.

Tl;Dr- broken into chunks

  1. randomization does not truly exist within software, therefore a hidden mechanic is used to determine “random” values.

  2. loot luck is impossible to determine since there could be many hidden factors contributing to your received drops. In short, there’s no way to determine the base value, or what decides the base value. It could literally be anything that ags has used to encode their “random” chance. All we know is that we have this “random” chance + our bonuses.

  3. we have a vague understanding of how harvesting luck and chances of increasing watermarking work:

Watermark- you have a base “increase luck points”, the value of your water mark, and each drop that doesn’t increase your watermark adds to this total. Higher gearscore require higher amounts of “increase luck points” for obtaining rhat next upgrade.
(Derived from the Dev post stating your chance of increases your water mark increases each time you receive a drop that doesn’t increase your water mark, and from a reddit post that listed the gearscore of all the items they received from 100 chests or something like that. The compiled data resembled a bell curve centered around ~560)

Harvesting- let’s say tulvium requires 800+ “luck points” to have a chance at being obtained from orichalcum. Your skill level (200 max) acts as a base value and your gear contributes 100*(luck percentage) towards your total “luck points”.
(Derived from old Dev post detailing mining luck. Please note that exact “luck point” values were not used)

Now, while we have ways to influence our luck and thanks to insights from official forum posts and community gathered data, we have a general frame of reference for our luck regarding harvesting and increasing our watermark. However, there are still unknowns that factor in to whether or not we receive the tulvium or a gearscore increase even when we have the proper parameters set. These unknown factors are what my argument in the reddit post is based around. We simply do not have enough information, nor the means to acquire the necessary information for form a valid conclusion, or even valid hypothesis, on whether or not loot luck works.

It is incredibly interesting trying to figure out what determines the items we receive, despite it being ultimately impossible without an official statement from AGS. New world does not appear to work like runescape where there’s a static formula that dictates the drop chance of items you will receive upon triggering an event. Please check out the reddit post and leave your thoughts here or there.

i would love if ags would stop acting like switzerland and comment on loot-luck issues.

if pearls override our armor perk luck, and if luck trophies are bugged then please confirm or deny.

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