Incorrect refining duplication probability displayed

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  • What is your character name in New World: Thregeril
  • What server/world did you experience your issue on: Calnogor
  • Describe the issue you are experiencing: I have suspected this is an issue previously, but only tonight have I recorded actual refining amounts to verify. In the process of refining enough infused leather to finish maxing my armoring skill, I calculated the amount of rawhide necessary to refine to infused leather. I did a small-batch trial run to ensure that the displayed probabilities of gaining an extra item upon refining are reasonably similar to the actual extra amount gained. All refining was done in Brightwood at a T5 refining station, using Rested Tannin at 200 leatherworking.

First, I refined 988 rawhide into 247 coarse leather, with the stated probability of gaining an extra unit as 62%. I received 325 total from refining, a bonus of 78 coarse leather, a 31.6% bonus. Using a binomial distribution of 247 trials with 78 “successes”, the probability of obtaining 78 or fewer bonus materials is 3x10^-22, or practically zero (probabilities computed in R).

Next, I refined the coarse leather into Rugged leather. Using the leather from above as well as some already stored, I refined 324 Coarse leather into 81 Rugged leather. The stated probability of receiving an extra item was 110%, I received a total of 150 from refining… a total of 69 bonus rugged leather. This result cannot be defined probabilistically, since the probability of receiving an extra item exceeded 100% and I did not receive a bonus material for each input (Previously today I also refined in Everfall (T4 tannery) with over 100% duplication chance, and did indeed receive over 100% bonus material).

Third, I refined this rugged leather, along with other rugged leather and thick hides, into layered leather; I had materials for 141 layered leather. There was a stated 57% chance of receiving an extra item, I received a total of 180 layered leather, or 39 extra (27.7%). Again, if the true probability of receiving an extra item were 57%, the probability of receiving 39 or fewer bonus materials from this refine is 1.67x10^-12, also essentially zero.

Finally, I refined this layered leather into infused leather (along with other layered already in my storage). I had materials for 203 infused leather, with a stated chance of receiving an extra item at 50%. I received 236 infused leather, for a bonus of 33 items (16.26%). Again, if the true probability of receiving an extra item were 50%, the probability of receiving 33 or fewer bonus materials from this refine is 9.92x10^-24, also essentially zero.

I have been refining leather all day, and the Everfall T4 tannery seems to be operating within reasonable margins of error given a binomial distribution of receiving extra items. As a statistician, being unable to rely upon stated probabilities in the refining station makes material farming incredibly frustrating as my calculations of what I require are meaningless if the stations do not provide additional materials as stated.

I did not take screenshots of the first run, however, when I wrote this post I did a second trial, starting with 1000 rawhide. The screenshots are included below.


It seems that the displayed probability is affected by the number of times you equip and unequip your tanner’s equipment, each piece is expected to increase bonus yield by 2%, however, if I repeatedly equip and unequip my tanner gear I can push the displayed chance higher and higher.

  • Is this a bug or an exploit: Bug

  • (if a bug) How did the issue effect your gameplay: Makes material farming unreliable.

  • (if a bug) Were you able to recover from the issue: Not game breaking, but I have to recalculate my required farming amounts for my materials to max my armoring.

  • (if a bug) Please include a screenshot or video of the issue that you have experienced:

  • What are the steps to reproduce the issue as you experienced:
    It seems that the displayed probability is affected by the number of times you equip and unequip your tanner’s equipment, each piece is expected to increase bonus yield by 2%, however, if I repeatedly equip and unequip my tanner gear I can push the displayed chance higher and higher, without affecting the actual yield (I included a screenshot of the rawhide to coarse leather refining on my second verification batch, where I pushed the displayed yield probability up by removing and equipping my tanner’s outfit, while the actual probability of extra pieces remains approximately 30% while refining from rawhide to coarse leather with the full outfit and 200 tanning (consistent with the first batch)

theres about the same bug with crafting GS displayed, seen shroud has 1000-1200 in crafting some spear, and u can equip reequip special clothes like +2 armoring many time and at crafting table (forge) ur crafting gs may go 610+ lowest (with skill 200), I think nobody report this coz everyone see how many bugs already in game and let this one visual bug a go )) I understand them) Bug world )

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