Dear devs,
in this post, I want to write about loot luck and getting trophy material - specifically looting Supply Chest T3 [L].
This post will get really mathematical to provide all the information for you feel free to skip ahead, to the end of the post.
Calculation on how high is the chance is on a Supply Chest T3 [L] to get a trophy mat:
The following table is the loot from each supply stockpile. The first thing we look at is what can be looted from a provision stockpile. We are looking at the “item4” (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLarge”,
“AND/OR”: “AND”,
“LuckSafe”: “TRUE”,
“Conditions”: “GlobalMod”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 0,
“Item1”: “[LTID]ContainerLootGearLeveled”,
“Item2”: “[LTID]GlobalNamedListRoll”,
“Item3”: “[LBID]ResourceItems”,
"Item4": “[LTID]ContainerLootLargeExtra”,
“Item5”: “[LBID]ContainerFurnitureCommon”
},
To be able to calculate the probability, here it is (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLarge_Probs”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 100000,
“Item1”: “0”,
“Item2”: “0”,
“Item3”: “35000”,
"Item4": “75000”,
“Item5”: “85000”
}
Now we look at the loot table and probability from the “ContainerLootLargeExtra” (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLargeExtra”,
“AND/OR”: “OR”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 0,
“Item1”: “[LTID]ContainerLootGearLeveled”,
“Item2”: “[LBID]ContainerFurnitureUncommon”,
“Item3”: “[LBID]ContainerFurnitureRare”,
"Item4": "[LBID]ContainerTrophyArtifacts"
},
We also match it to the probability to get the extra item (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLargeExtra_Probs”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 100000,
“Item1”: “0”,
“Item2”: “75000”,
“Item3”: “90000”,
"Item4": "99500"
},
(Note the roll “OR” means you roll for each item separately. The “AND” means your roll one time for everything.)
Each roll is a roll between 0 and 100000.
With 0 luck in your equipment, you would theoretically have a chance on a trophy mat of:
(100000-75000)/100000*(100000-99500)/100000 = 0,000125 = 0,0125%
Now you may ask, what is in the “Item4”: “[LBID]ContainerTrophyArtifacts”?
Here you go (source):
This is really rough to read but IMO it says that the chance of each trophy is equally distributed.
So we have a chance of 0,0125% to loot a trophy without any loot luck.
Let’s calculate the chance with maximum loot luck in 1.2:
How much loot luck is possible to have:
Head, Chest, Pants, Gloves, Boots, Amulet, Ring, Earring: 8 * (2,8% + 0,5%)
3x Bags: 3 * 2,8%
2x Weapons: 2 * (2,8% + 0,5%)
Food Roasted Monstrous Turkey Dinner: 5%
3x Major Trophy: 3 * 1,5% (source)
PvP Luck: 10%
(Yes the Major trophy should give way more, but sadly it does NOT, please also fix this AGS)
Maximum loot luck: 8 * (2,8% + 0,5%) + 3 * 2,8% + 2 * (2,8% + 0,5%) + 5% + 3 * 1,5% + 10% = 60,9%
Alright, so what does 60,9% loot luck mean?
Calculation of luck (source):
+{[Type_StatusEffectData.Status_Perk_Lucky.GlobalRollMod * 0.01 * {perkMultiplier}]}% chance at rare items from chests and monsters.
This means 1% luck equals +100 GlobalRollMod
So if we have 1% luck we still roll from 0 - 100000 and afterwards 100 is added and then calculated if the total is above f.e. 99500 to get the specific item.
With 50,9% loot luck you would get +5090 added to each of your rolls.
Let’s adjust the formula to calculate the luck now for a trophy:
Old formula (100000-75000)/100000*(100000-99500)/100000 = 0,000125 = 0,0125%
New formula (100000-75000+6090)/100000)*(100000-99500+6090)/100000 = 0,02049 = 2,049%
Therefore I’d have a 2,049% chance to drop a trophy from each Supply Chest T3 [L].
To get to my current data and why I can say loot luck is bugged:
My current loot luck adds up to 60,4% (yeah I am missing 0,5% on the weapons 
)
My current chance to loot a trophy from a Supply Chest T3 [L] should theoretically be: 2,030%
Me and my friends (with almost the same loot luck) opened 874 chests and only got 1 trophy.
The expected average amount of trophies from 874 opened chests: 14,67
I will not go deeper into the maths and calculate the confidence interval. (feel free to do so below)
For the comments - “you are just unlucky” - yeah that is possible but 99% or more of the times the system is wrong and less than 1% of the times I am unlucky.
