Loot luck is bugged (with proof)

Dear devs,

in this post, I want to write about loot luck and getting trophy material - specifically looting Supply Chest T3 [L].
This post will get really mathematical to provide all the information for you feel free to skip ahead, to the end of the post.

Calculation on how high is the chance is on a Supply Chest T3 [L] to get a trophy mat:
The following table is the loot from each supply stockpile. The first thing we look at is what can be looted from a provision stockpile. We are looking at the “item4” (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLarge”,
“AND/OR”: “AND”,
“LuckSafe”: “TRUE”,
“Conditions”: “GlobalMod”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 0,
“Item1”: “[LTID]ContainerLootGearLeveled”,
“Item2”: “[LTID]GlobalNamedListRoll”,
“Item3”: “[LBID]ResourceItems”,
"Item4": “[LTID]ContainerLootLargeExtra”,
“Item5”: “[LBID]ContainerFurnitureCommon”
},
To be able to calculate the probability, here it is (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLarge_Probs”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 100000,
“Item1”: “0”,
“Item2”: “0”,
“Item3”: “35000”,
"Item4": “75000”,
“Item5”: “85000”
}
Now we look at the loot table and probability from the “ContainerLootLargeExtra” (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLargeExtra”,
“AND/OR”: “OR”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 0,
“Item1”: “[LTID]ContainerLootGearLeveled”,
“Item2”: “[LBID]ContainerFurnitureUncommon”,
“Item3”: “[LBID]ContainerFurnitureRare”,
"Item4": "[LBID]ContainerTrophyArtifacts"
},
We also match it to the probability to get the extra item (source):
{
“LootTableID”: “ContainerLootLargeExtra_Probs”,
“HWMMult”: 0,
“GSBonus”: 0,
“MaxRoll”: 100000,
“Item1”: “0”,
“Item2”: “75000”,
“Item3”: “90000”,
"Item4": "99500"
},
(Note the roll “OR” means you roll for each item separately. The “AND” means your roll one time for everything.)

Each roll is a roll between 0 and 100000.
With 0 luck in your equipment, you would theoretically have a chance on a trophy mat of:
(100000-75000)/100000*(100000-99500)/100000 = 0,000125 = 0,0125%

Now you may ask, what is in the “Item4”: “[LBID]ContainerTrophyArtifacts”?
Here you go (source):
This is really rough to read but IMO it says that the chance of each trophy is equally distributed.

So we have a chance of 0,0125% to loot a trophy without any loot luck.
Let’s calculate the chance with maximum loot luck in 1.2:
How much loot luck is possible to have:
Head, Chest, Pants, Gloves, Boots, Amulet, Ring, Earring: 8 * (2,8% + 0,5%)
3x Bags: 3 * 2,8%
2x Weapons: 2 * (2,8% + 0,5%)
Food Roasted Monstrous Turkey Dinner: 5%
3x Major Trophy: 3 * 1,5% (source)
PvP Luck: 10%
(Yes the Major trophy should give way more, but sadly it does NOT, please also fix this AGS)

Maximum loot luck: 8 * (2,8% + 0,5%) + 3 * 2,8% + 2 * (2,8% + 0,5%) + 5% + 3 * 1,5% + 10% = 60,9%

Alright, so what does 60,9% loot luck mean?
Calculation of luck (source):
+{[Type_StatusEffectData.Status_Perk_Lucky.GlobalRollMod * 0.01 * {perkMultiplier}]}% chance at rare items from chests and monsters.

This means 1% luck equals +100 GlobalRollMod
So if we have 1% luck we still roll from 0 - 100000 and afterwards 100 is added and then calculated if the total is above f.e. 99500 to get the specific item.
With 50,9% loot luck you would get +5090 added to each of your rolls.
Let’s adjust the formula to calculate the luck now for a trophy:
Old formula (100000-75000)/100000*(100000-99500)/100000 = 0,000125 = 0,0125%
New formula (100000-75000+6090)/100000)*(100000-99500+6090)/100000 = 0,02049 = 2,049%

Therefore I’d have a 2,049% chance to drop a trophy from each Supply Chest T3 [L].

To get to my current data and why I can say loot luck is bugged:
My current loot luck adds up to 60,4% (yeah I am missing 0,5% on the weapons :unamused:)
My current chance to loot a trophy from a Supply Chest T3 [L] should theoretically be: 2,030%

Me and my friends (with almost the same loot luck) opened 874 chests and only got 1 trophy.
The expected average amount of trophies from 874 opened chests: 14,67
I will not go deeper into the maths and calculate the confidence interval. (feel free to do so below)
For the comments - “you are just unlucky” - yeah that is possible but 99% or more of the times the system is wrong and less than 1% of the times I am unlucky.

71 Likes

@Developer Any comment on that? You are awkardly silent on all of these reports.

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2% chance does not mean you will get 2 trophies after 100 chests. You dont understand calculus of probability.

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I kinda wish they just use an xp system for rare loot hidden behind things.
Needs 10,000 xp to get random trophies item.
Boxes are 5xp
Crates is 25 xp
Elite boxes are 100xp
And loot luck just increases ur XP gain by that percent.
This way you will always get item at X threshold and remove the rng from boxes and people won’t feel like shit opening boxes for weeks and weeks and get nothing at all cause bad luck.

2 Likes

So if I play heads or tails and after 10 throws of my coin I get 9 tails, does it mean is 90% for a tail ? No it is still 50%. Same is here but chances are much lower you can open 1000 chests and get nothing and ur mate can open 20 and have 6. This is all about RNG.

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That’s totally true. As I said in the post if you want to calculate the exact confidence interval feel free to do so. But please do not argue without calculating anything and then proving it wrong. If you want to know how confidence intervals work here go you.

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I don’t think that would be a solution. You would then make the system completely linear. But I love the feeling to get 2 trophies in one run for example. That way you will never have that.
I just think they should fix it.

But what did you calculate ? Does your calculation can predict ur loot from chests ? No this is full RNG, you can buy max luck eq to max your chances but it does not mean you will get anything.

I calculated the 99% confidence interval. Please look into the video and understand the theory behind it.

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So you throw something into fhe room were you mean its wrong and gave some tables to the forum which you found in the datamines and if some gets around with 9/10 tails you need him to proof his state which of course was your statement before which everyone should accept without a proof by you?

They can even do something like genshin where after every 10,000 boxes you get a trophies piece.

How genshin works is after ever roll on a champion you would get increasing odds everytime you fail to get tier 5 character untill you eventually get 100 percent chance where it then reset.

This way you won’t go months of box farming and getting nothing I’ve farmer alot of boxes and only ever got 2 trophies items which feels bad

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  1. Are we sure there’s more than one roll? They could pass the initial roll to subsequent checks.

  2. Just wanted to point out these datasets are from 29th October. I wouldn’t rely on these numbers still being up to date.

There’s a whole bunch of stuff here in lootbucket. Any idea how the actual loot is determined after loottables? Could trophies be wrongly sharing their pool?

I dont care about your theories. In games RNG rules the game if you are lucky u will have it. When I look at ghe market there is a lot of trophies artifact so ppl can drop it. You are just unlucky, there is nothing wrong withluck bonus. The only thing I am not sure is if luck from weapons have an effect on a chests or not, hard to check it.

The game is designed to sink all of your time into mundane tasks, this being one of them. The loot tables are massive, but the game has no bad luck protection. What does that tell you? Ah, yes, go play a different game until this one plays like it’s a game and not a job.

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Hello @Developer team,
We need you to look into luck, again. it seems like the luck is broken and its a common sentiment. by luck, i mean all luck types currently in the game.

I noticed this with november update, reported it, even a CM said he will send it to the devteam but we heared nothing about it.

i can definetly say, 99% sure Loot Luck, mining luck and logging luck are broken in one way or the other and i have different scenarios because we dont get to have info on our luck, i cant be so sure what the actual case is. Here we go:

  1. Flagged luck:
    Sometimes It feels like Flagged Luck is not intended to stack with luck on gear or there is something else bugged un regards to flagged luck because i see immediate difference when i try flagged off or on.

  2. Luck sweet spot:
    initially what i thought the cause is since all the problems for me started at november updates. flagged luck stacking with gear makes your character cross the threshold.
    Messing with the amount of luck on gear, changes the luck you get. you feel it immediatly. most of the times i get better loot consistently when i lower the amount of luck on my gear.

  3. Dying removes luck:
    Recently i noticed when i die, im getting close to no rare drops (Like gems on nodes) after i respawn and i can get better loot after a relog.

  4. Amulet:
    I didn’t test it with gathring luck but i did test loot luck and let me tell you it just makes a huge difference having it removed.

  5. Food luck:
    So im no so sure about this but it seems i get better loot with lower tier luck food.

Sorry for the wall of text but this needs to get fixed cause it’s just game breaking, frustrating and confusing.

@Kay @Luxendra @TrevzorFTW
would be nice to get info on this from devs even if its “We looked into it and its working as intended” answer, thanks you in advance.

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These aren’t my theories. This is an application of statistical methods. You can apply those to any event in the world. Doesn’t have to be RPG loot luck, can also be the distribution of anything.
If anyone wants to I can also post the confidence interval calculation here (which I didn’t since my post was already very long).
The only thing I am saying is that the system is 99% wrong and I am 1% wrong. Of course, I and my friends could be the 1% where you only get 1 trophy (with specifically that loot luck gear) out of 874 chests. But since there are many many more posts, I am really confident in saying that something in loot luck is broken.
I heard of amulets luck bonuses being applied negative, pristine pearls overwriting the luck of an item and more and more. I am not saying that any of those things are happening. I am just saying that something is off with a confidence of 99%. You can accept it or not, but that’s just applying scientific methods to calculate that.

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I also don’t mind if we were just really unlucky.
I just want a confirmation that at the moment loot luck is calculated the right way from a @Developer or the @Community-Team. Or maybe what exactly is not working, so everyone can work with it. I don’t mind farming long…

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PRINT. THE. DAMN. DROP-CHANCE. IN. PERCENT. WHEN. AN. ITEM. DROPS.

Or is that bad for immersion?:roll_eyes:

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That’s a good question. I am not 100% how that exactly is calculated. I calculated it myself with equal distribution over all trophies.

This appears at first glance to be the gambler’s fallacy.

The number of chests opened doesn’t improve your chances.