Loot luck is bugged (with proof)

Bug Reports Bug Reports
218

Its a 2% chance. What do you want? A rare every other chest? Its not a bug, its how its suposed to be. If you get trophy mats every day then they wouldnt be rare would they? If you are unlucky dead with it, i am too and i’m not whinning or saying its a bug

219

I have almost 900h played did tons of chest runs and the only trophy mat i ever got droped was 1 for the basic skinning trophy and it was today.

220

Day 32 …

still zero Dev / Mod input, do you think this is acceptable …

221

I think there are some errors that may increase your probability estimation.

  1. You need to take base ROLL bonus, don’t use percentages as they are erroneous
  2. The first Loot table ContainerLootLarge is LuckSafe, this means that luck is not affected by it.
  3. You have already awnsered it but you indeed need to take into account confidence. If you have 1%, you cannot be sure that after 100 chests you will drop one (bc independent event does not sum but multiply, you will never have 100%). You can use bernouilli formula to take into account confidence (like I am doing on my luck calculator).

Taking all of that into account:

  1. Head, Chest, Pants, Gloves, Boots, Amulet, Ring, Earring: 8 * (277.25 + 50)
    3x Bags: 3 * 277.25
    2x Weapons: 2 * (277.25 + 50)
    Food Roasted Monstrous Turkey Dinner: 495
    3x Major Trophy: 3 * 150
    PvP Luck: 1000

Maximum loot luck: 6049,25

  1. p = (100k-75k)/100k)*(100k-99.5k+6049)/100k = 1,6373125%

  2. You have 95% probability to get at least 1 trophy mat after looting 182 chests
    95% probability to get 8 trophy mats after looting at least 874 chests

Honestly since we are talking about relatively small probabilities, and small sample size, it is difficult to conclude on anything here. But your experiment could show that there is indeed something wrong (especially if all your friends did the same).

Anyway we are all waiting on dev input, only them can have a high enough sample size, and running some simulations to confront with theory…

Hope that helps,

222

There must be a bug preventing mods from commenting

2 Likes
223

so far i’ve done the same 14 chest route and started tracking all drops from every chest. my sample size is only 17 total runs (224 total chests).

luck varied from 38 - 42%.

  • 142 grey (63%)
  • 267 green (49%)
  • 55 blue (10%)
  • 34 purple (6%)
  • ContainerLootLargeExtra - 44 (20%)
  • 3 trophy artifacts (legendary) (4.7%)

i would say based off my sample size, loot isn’t bugged and is more or less pretty close to the theoretical values (resourcematerials 66%, LootContainerExtra 25% and 4.65% trophyartifact).
some key notes

  • weapon swapped
  • pvp reflag in zone or relog with it on. didn’t make a difference
  • death does not affect luck. in fact i looted a trophyartifact after a death
  • container visual type doesn’t seem to make a difference. got a trophymat from an armoring looking chest and 2 from a furnishing chest.
  • pearls/amulets doesn’t seem to have a negative effect

take what you will, gl.

1 Like
224

How do you keep track if you were inside ContainerLootLargeExtra ? Because it also have LBID ContainerLootGearLeveled.

225

if you receive anythign better than common furniture/schematic, it’s from the extracontainer. also, if you receive 3 total weapons/armor, you were in the extracontainer.

preluck values
uncommon furniture - 25%
rare furniture - 10%
trophyartifacts - 0.05%

luck plays a SIGNIFICANT role in drastically increasing your chances to get into the trophyartifacts bucket. without luck, you have to roll a 99500+. with basic luck gear averaging around 38%, you increase your odds by 10X, albeit it still sucks.

1 Like
226

Hey Zancryn,

thanks for the input.
That definitely helps a lot! (Esp. “LuckSafe”)

Since you say a 600gs bag adds 277.25 luck.
Where do you have that exact number from?
I guess that also means 600gs bag > 599gs bag with luck (and also any other attribute) even if both items say "2,8%, right?

Greetings
Mathmarkus

227

similar to the Devs response in this thread i havn’t bothered playing since it was opened and lack of ANY actual reply i think its time to claim the HD space back… was fun for a bit and had potential

228

ya we’ve been waiting for a response to a bunch of questions in another luck thread started by bandi. We were promised we would have more information but haven’t heard from @Wyvernn in a week. I think they are going silent. Its a shame, really good game but stuff like this just pushes too many people away. The devs can update us on “typos” in a thread and apologize for the typos but cant give us answers to real questions and problems. Constantly just passing the buck. It is what it is and what it is, is a damn shame.

2 Likes
229

For the exact number, check GlobalRollMod here:

230

I think its not as simple. There are ranges on items and u have to hit range to get given item. I think if u stack up to much luck u ofter overoll trophy mats. Just theory.

231

Looks like we don’t ever get any kind of answer but here goes my bumperino

232

They should be ashamed at this level of poor customer service.

1 Like
233

They dont care

234

2 weeks and 2 shattered runs a day 11 stockpiles and 2 kills on the pitlord. 154 chests 28 pitlords… zero trophy mats, zero crests. got 1 booty chest… great.

235

After a weekend of stockpile-runs and no trophy-mats this thread deserves another bump.

2 Likes
236

Bump

237

after one tracker seal last week, back to a massive dry run

another bump.

1 Like