Odds Revisited: Crafting is NOT fair (Results and analysis of 4300 rolls)

While I do not always agree with everything you post, this is some EXCELLENLY SUPERB research done to clear up confusion about crafting odds. Thank you for your efforts, they are GREATLY appreciated! :clap: :clap: :clap: :raised_hands:

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Did you, perhaps, miss this part of his post?

Or maybe this part?

I disagree. I have crafted 100x 595-600 Bags across two characters on two servers and the results were 15 legendary bags so just 1.67% shy of expected values. Worth noting I only made 3 out of 30 attempts in my first batch, followed up by 7 out of 30 in my second batch and finally 5 out of 40 in my 3rd batch.

Similarly, out of 400x 595-600 gathering tools (100 of each type) I’ve ended up with 61 legendary tools or 15.25% - again 1.4% shy of the expected values.

Always crafting with max Azoth for what it’s worth - and that means spending the extra 15 or w/e it is of wasted Azoth to guarantee a 4th perk even though I am forcing one with a perk modifier because who knows.

I don’t have nearly as many 595-600 armor crafts logged but of the 54 I have crafted (mostly with golden scarabs) I’ve made 9 legendary items which curiously enough is exactly 16.67% or 1 in 6. :man_shrugging:

Because it is useful to know if crafting is uniformly distributed across all possible gearscores or if 600/max is lower weighted, and if so, what the actual crafting distribution looks like.

Look I welcome the research, you put alot of time into this but it doesn’t really help anyone.

If only you managed to do it on 595-600 :slight_smile:

That’s fine if you do not think it is useful for you. I don’t think you’re getting the point of the post.

basically his results showed you can roll anywhere from 1-8 on a six sided die…that’s not unfair?

pretty sure anyone who disagrees is missing the point.

Love your post, love your OTHER post, and love how you stand up to everyone in here who needs schooling on confidence intervals. As someone else put it, „doing gods work“, keep up the good shit :slightly_smiling_face:

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