The Lucks system is bugged and its getting annoying

We’ve had several attempts as a group of 10-20 each night farming the one boss. I’ve tried the luck with max luck (trophies, gear, amulets etc) (61.9% luck) and still nothing. Others have moonwalked in with ~5% luck and gotten it.

The variables keep shifting around with some saying 0% luck, others with 10% luck …some with 50% above and so on. The entire system is just stupid, as it puts the whole concept of luck into constant state of skeptism and “fair-play” doesn’t seem to equate towards those who over invest heavily into the luck system, assuming it pays dividends.

There are no gurantees for sure, but when you are max’d out on luck and stream after stream of players roll in with little not zero % luck attack the boss, and about 4-5 tries they moonwalk out with the named items.

It just feels like you’re dealing with either buggy predicate logic in the code and/or the AGS devs have tweaked the loot tables to favour lower-end tier drops rather than higher-end tier drops in luck.

Looking at the data mine dumps of the loot tables, the entire % of luck chances vs what we see in game just don’t seem to equate to “as per design” feature.

There is a FAQ on this topic that seems either dated or simply steps over pertinent questions, furthermore it heavily relies on that logic that the luck formula is working. I’d argue that the luck formula is probably working however, I’d say that the loot tables are constantly shifting around and that the chances of drops seem to always favor the lower end tier luck holders rather than the max ones.

On the flipside to this, when you do trophy chest runs the luck system is noticeable more so in the rare drops than the without.

To me there is a quality assurance issue here that needs focus and attention.

All this entire feature says to players is “its broken, and nobody has a clue on what works or doesn’t” which undermines the entire feature proposition in the first place.

AGS do better, sit down and really delve deep into this topic and prove that your quality assurance is on point and that you’re taking the matter serious.

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I believe the current system should be changed to give a better chance of getting extra loot. The problem is that the text is not real, basically what increases is the chance of winning the item. If it is 1% you will have 1.6% to win the item.

No matter what you do, when you have single-digit luck, or especially an expected chance below 1%, you may feel terrible about random. This is entire point of having random in-game - it creates scarcity of specific items.

And no matter what, you always may end up in 1% zone chance of 1% chance. Eg when average expectation is to get an item once out of 100 tries, you may end up doing it 10000 times and only then you will get an item. It’s not broken luck, it’s only the way this luck works. In the same way, someone will get an item on 5-10 attempts, instead of 100s. This may sounds sad, but this is only way how random works everywhere

Here you already can check you average expectations

And soon we will add average expectations for drops from mobs. Probable we will also describe mid-good/bad cases and edge cases like one I described above. The only question is how to properly show it in UI, but after all: luck doesn’t affect rarity/perks on items, etc

It’s been told and explained by AGS stuff many-many times. Propbably one day I will sit down and write a proper article ones again, so everyone will be able to share it and once new questions arise - I will be able too more info to it

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I am fine with the luck formula and probability. That all makes sense, my contention is two things.

First if you as a dev team were looking to introduce volume of loot to be dispersed amongst population then you’d look to allocate drops based on likely volume levels. Too much it becomes too easy, too little it becomes poison to the games economy.

So… to balance this you’d obviously tweak the balance via the loot tables and less adjust the actual luck calculations or the code. Ergo, to constantly adjust the formula or code around luck would introduce too much regression issues in the code.

My contention is AGS seemingly are stacking the loot tables in a way that’s becoming somewhat obvious the balance is not seemingly fair play. It’s as if the casino is not paying out the odds as advertised.

However when you tweak your luck settings into the various bands you notice a visual adjustment in the loot drops. So the probability formulas are active but again the loot tables aren’t being consistent with expectations.

Most MMO if not all use remote tooling to handle loot table adjustments as once the structure of code is intact there is no need for code level changes - as it’s just dynamic data driven (like for example Azure Playfab)

My theory is the loot tables aren’t matching the luck bands which isn’t a probability flaw but a loot management flaw

Secondly - the fact you have to go so in-depth to explain the probability and this is a constant reoccurring theme indicates the playerbase don’t have faith the team are delivering on a promise.

That’s the ball game. If players are spending hours on end grinding at the same boss waiting for that payout - holding a large investment of luck (which is no joke either) and constantly seeing waves of dissatisfaction. Especially when they are holding the luck % investment whilst more visual frequency of players who don’t - win …

I mean the result is sunken cost fallacy unfolding in what can only be described as bad design

It’s just plain bad design and the more this lingers the more the playerbase moves further away from continued play.

I’m not saying a player packs up and quits after a failed name drop. I am saying that this is one of many more inconsistent trigger points that remind the player that AGS aren’t on top of quality assurance and that they are simply wasting time investing.

Fresh start servers are an indication of how players feel betrayed by their investment vs reward.

Balance isn’t just about making sure pvp has equals outcomes … it’s also more about your time vs rewards. If your time feels it’s being betrayed… well … you stop.

AGS need to admit defeat on the as-is luck system and bring back reinforcement features that encourage players to strive for the grind.

Anything short of that is just more bandaid on broken limbs

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