The outcome of 20 crafts with 595-600 crafting potential - 1 legendary

Yet some people still want to believe it is a 1/6 chance of getting 600 each time you craft.

Top 20 items are the items I crafted.

150+ asmodeum down the drain. With legitimate 5/6 odds of hitting 600 once out of 20 items that is 0.02% chance of happening. That is a 0.1% chance (I used a dice calculator) you could roll 20 dice and a get a 6 to show up only once.

I’m sorry - no.

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It does not proof they are wrong 1/6 is around 18% for legendary item. To make it easier 20% chances dont mean that every 5th craft will be legendary it just means u have 20% chances. You can have 0/100 and 40/200 or 0/200 and 200/1000 of legendaries… You dont understand calculus of probability Nothing is guaranted nothing chances always remain the same in every attempt.

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Feels bad :confused: Next time let me roll for you. Like 3 weeks ago I rolled 10 bags and got 4 legos.

That said I also had sessions like yours. What’s worse, a couple of days ago I also rolled gloves and in my first batch I must have rolled with 30 instead of 45 azoth and I got 2 GS600 purples :-(.

Sometimes you’re the hammer, sometimes you’re the nail.

Odds aren’t a guarantee. They’re a probability. You’ll probably get a legendary 20% of the time, but there’s no guarantee you will.

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That is a very bad argument to make, though. Following that train of thought, no odds could ever be called into question because „might have just been bad luck bro“. 1 out of 20 doesn’t seem off to me either (~10% chance for that to happen), but the real argument here is „sample size too small to draw conclusions“.

Only truth is that you have ~16,6% chance to craft legendary piece. Everytime no matter how many crafts you made. Its always 16,6% for legendary each attempt. You can never have legendary craft and next day u can make 6/6. If more crafts u do then closer you will get to this „16,6% of all crafts are legendary” number.

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This all boils down to people lacking basic understanding for non-complex math. 20%chance does not mean every 5th.

In those cases I recommend skipping the game for some school, not the other way around.

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Crafting system simply is garbage…

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Where is this written? Every large scale sample on this subject implies that the odds for crafting GS600 are smaller than for crafting GS595 f.e. So where is your source that every side of the dice has the same seize?

Crafting is still a big scam in this game. Even with Runestone Stopwatch and Golden Scarab not much has changed. Both items keep players grinding the game to be disappointed again when attempting to craft.
Prices for BiS gear are still insane and its literally impossible to ever become BiS in this game as a casual player that only plays 2-3 hours per day without buying gold illegal or having a rich company supporting you with gold.
Its also pretty much impossible to create also different specs because that costs millions if you want to be close to BiS or simply just try different perk combinations.
And now with the new runeglass stones everything has become even more expensive than before…
And dont forget about the amount of umbral shards that you need to upgrade the gear…as a PvP player you are pretty much screwed when it comes to umbral shards in NW.

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Absolutely agree.
The amount of playtime, stupid grinding something is simply insane for what you get…

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What ?xd

crafting-595-600-what-is-the-chance-to-craft-legendary

a-conclusive-analysis-crafting-600gs-is-not-a-16-chance

There is no official data whether the spread at 595-600 is exactly the same or whether a further “adjustment” was made here on the part of AGS.

The fact remains, however, that you roll the dice completely new every time with the GS. It is true, the more you craft, increasingly unlikely that you do not roll 600, but it is never excluded.

As already mentioned by others here, anything is possible.

If the chances of 600 are exactly the same as 595, then with 100 Crafts everything from 100x600GS to 100x595GS is possible and legitimate.

In my experience, the chance of 600 is slightly lower than 16.6%, I would say ~12.5%.
Then that would be ideally 1/8 rolls hit the 600GS.

The problem with the whole discussion is, everyone gets upset when you craft 20 items and none becomes GS600 and then maybe create a forum post. But the fact that you sometimes rolls 3x600GS even with 4 Crafts is not so widely discussed.

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You have options 595, 596, 597, 598, 599, 600 its a roll a dice everytime u have 16,6% chances to get 600. You can make 10k craft and only 50 will be legendary also 5k can be legendary everytime u do such tests you will get different results. One day I set 6 crafts 0 legendaries 2nd day I had 4/6 happends. If u use runestop you have 598, 599, 600 its 33% for 600 again its roll a dice every time you do an attempt. previous attempts do not increase your chances in next try its still 16,6%.

So… you’re just gonna ignore the threads that were linked a couple posts earlier, ignore the referenced data that does not support your experiences and believe whatever you want to believe? :smile:

Sadly the state of crafting in this game is pretty poor, it’s work enough to even get to the point you can craft 595-600 gear then you got to get enough mats and hope rng smiles on you for perks etc

…so I feel we should have more control on our craft being legendary.

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And you believe that previous attempts in roll a dice increases your future chances to get higher number ? This is not how calculus of probability works and whole theory of probability.

but what if legendary becomes common then? where’s the rewarding part of the game if everything is easily obtainable? i imagine that for most mmorpg players long term effort rewards should beat instant gratification.

i wonder how ppl would feel if legendary wasn’t “legendary” anymore, im sure another complaining thread would be started.

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It doesn’t matter if there is more lego in the game, something isn’t BiS cause it’s lego only…it needs the right combo of perks which is still very much rng and still will cost quite a bit in mats.

I mean it’s not that hard to get lego drops in the first place so why make crafting it so much more a PITA grind?

Frankly it would be far from being instant gratification if it was easier to roll legos…and this argument is getting tiresome and asinine.

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